1. My predictions are not to be trusted…
Portugal’s offense, which I derided yesterday while saying a North Korea win wouldn’t be a shock, was “anemic” to the tune of seven goals – six of which came in the second half. The offensive outburst featured more goals in the last 45 minutes than any other team has scored in their two games combined so far. In fairness, my criticism of the Portuguese wasn’t completely off base. Coming into the match, wonderboy Christiano Ronaldo had scored only one goal for his country in the past two years, coming in a friendly against Finland. More importantly, they’ve occasionally struggled against vastly inferior teams, as evidenced by scoreless ties against Estonia (No. 99 in the world) and Albania (79) over the past two years, and Cape Verde Islands (114) as recently as last month.
2. Spain’s lack of a killer instinct may cost them dearly…
As callous as it may sound, I can’t believe the pre-tournament favorites didn’t take a lesson from their peninsular brethren and spend the second half pouring in goals against the powerless Hondurans. Even taking the missed penalty into account, Spain was well capable of making that match 5-0, but backed off for whatever reason. As I’ve written time and time again, goal differential is the first tiebreaker, and when you’ve just dropped your first game, you take every advantage you can get. It’s really incomprehensible that in a World Cup bereft of goals so far, a team would pass up a chance at a 4-0 margin. Right now, they’re only one goal ahead of Switzerland. A win against Chile will vault them past the South Americans on goal differential, but the Swiss will only need a two or three goal win against Honduras to take the group and banishing the Spanish to a Round of 16 matchup against Brazil, bringing their Cup to a quick end.
3. Africa looks doomed at the moment…
What was supposed to be a month-long celebration of a continent is turning into a nightmare for the six African teams and their fans. Cameroon, owners of Africa’s most prized result – a quarterfinal trip in 1990 – were the first to be bounced after losses to underwhelming Japan and Denmark. Ivory Coast is facing almost certain elimination at the moment in the face of a nine-goal deficit in their tiebreaker scenario with the Portuguese. The Algerians need not only a win against the United States, but also help in the second game, a daunting obstacle for a team yet to find the back of the net. The hosts are similarly buried, needing a monster win over France coupled with a big loss by either Uruguay or Mexico. Nigeria can advance through Group B, but will need a win against Korea couple with an Argentina win against Greece. Their best hope lies solely in the hands of Ghana, who face one of the most explosive teams of the tournament in Germany and will likely need some help from the Australians against Serbia if they can’t grab the full three points against the Germans, which seems unlikely at the moment. So right now, we’re most likely looking at an Africa-free Round of 16, a heartbreaking outcome if it comes to pass.
4. Tomorrow’s the day…
Starting Tuesday, the field of 16 will begin to take shape as the opening round comes to an end two groups at a time. Both matches in a given group are played at the same time to prevent any forms of collusion as much as possible. For example, all four teams in Group A will play their third match at 10:00 am EST on Tuesday and the same will happen for Group B at 2:30 EST. From here on out, the tournament takes on a do-or-die mentality that will likely open up play even more (goals have gone up by more than one per game from the first to second set of games).
5. Discipline is more important than ever this week…
Teams advancing to the next round will have to be extremely cautious in their final matches because any player picking up a second yellow card for the tournament in the last group match will have to miss the Round of 16 match. Players whose teams can’t afford for them to get cautioned for the second time, and therefore suspended, include Robin van Persie, Christinao Ronaldo, Phillip Lahm, Steven Gerrard, and any of the United States back line whose suspension could result in the appearance of Jonathan Bornstein. Once the knockout stage begins, yellow/red card totals are wiped clean and begin anew at zero under the same rules.
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