Five thoughts - Arrivederci, Italia! edition

1. Italy deserved what they got…

Italy was getting old in 2006 when they became champions. In 2008, they were on their last legs. And yet, in 2010, Marcello Lippi acted as if he’d found the fountain of youth, stubbornly sticking with the same squad that wasn’t getting any younger. Of the 11 players on the field today, five were born before 1980. Their failure to develop a suitable backup for 32-year-old Gianliugi Buffon will haunt them. Backup Federico Marchetti became the first Italy goalkeeper to give up three goals in a World Cup game since 1970, when the Italians coughed up four against a Brazil team widely considered to be one of the greatest teams ever.

The inability to restock a roster coming off World Cup glory has been a problem in recent years. After winning in 1998, France finished at the bottom of its group in 2002 while failing to score a single goal. Brazil’s letdown after its 2002 title wasn’t nearly as great, but the team’s quarterfinal loss marked its earliest exit since 1990. This year, however, takes the cake. For the first time in the tournament’s history, both the defending champion and runner-up failed to make it out of the group stage.

2. Party like it’s 2002…

Both Japan and South Korea were relative newcomers to the game when they were selected to host the Cup in 2002. Neither had ever cracked the knockout round previously. However, both were able to avoid South Africa’s misfortune; in fact, both teams won their respective groups. The Koreans in particular were a revelation, advancing all the way to the semifinals en route to a fourth-place finish at home. Neither team was able to repeat its luck in 2006, but they’ve both bounced back to grab spots in the Round of 16 once more. In total, it looks as though nine teams that survived the group stage in 2002 will be back for more in 2010. That list includes two more teams that weren’t around at this point in the 2006 Cup – Paraguay and the United States.

3. New Zealand proved they belong…

The fact that the All-Whites got to a point where simply scoring a goal in their final match would have won them the group that included the defending champions is nothing short of miraculous. Ultimately, they couldn’t eek out one last miracle and instead settled for their third draw (and point) of the tournament. That being said, it’s still impressive that a squad generously listed at 1500-1 odds to win the World Cup went three games without a loss and finished above Italy in the group standings. It will probably cost them their coach, though. Ricki Herbert, who makes only $50,000 (as opposed to Fabio Capellos $6,000,000+ salary), will surely be off to a much more lucrative club job that won’t allow him to coach the national team as well.

4. North Korea and Honduras might get it bad Friday…

The communist whipping boys of Group G are going to the wrong place if they’re looking for compassion in the wake of a 7-goal thrashing at the hands of Portugal. Ivory Coast will need to match that number, if not more, in order to advance over Ronaldo and co. on goal differential. It’s no guarantee that they’ll be nearly as effective, but they’ll certainly be doing everything in their power to score goals at the expense of the North Koreans.

Honduras is a similar story. Switzerland might need to pile it on in order to ensure advancement in a scenario that could see Spain, Switzerland, and Chile tied with Spain and Switzerland wins. That would leave three teams tied for two spots, and the Swiss have the easiest route to the top in facing the punchless Hondurans. It’s a cruel world, but goals are the currency of advancement at the World Cup.

5. We’ll see who wants it most when it counts…

Brazil and Portugal face off to determine the winner of Group G. It’ll be interesting to see if Portugal plays for the win that would give them the group title or is content to sit back and play for a tie that would guarantee the knockout stage. It would take a big loss to bring elimination into play, so they’re probably fine in that regard. If the two sides come out with guns blazing, it’ll be a great indicator of where the teams stand heading into the final phase of the tournament.

The other crucial match involves Spain and Chile. Spain should be a favorite to win, but Chile has played the best soccer of the group so far. A Chilean victory would likely do the unthinkable, knocking out the pre-tournament favorites in the early stages and adding Spain to the list of Euro heartbreak along with France and Italy.

Five thoughts - Yep, I'm really that stupid edition

1. My predictions are not to be trusted…

Portugal’s offense, which I derided yesterday while saying a North Korea win wouldn’t be a shock, was “anemic” to the tune of seven goals – six of which came in the second half. The offensive outburst featured more goals in the last 45 minutes than any other team has scored in their two games combined so far. In fairness, my criticism of the Portuguese wasn’t completely off base. Coming into the match, wonderboy Christiano Ronaldo had scored only one goal for his country in the past two years, coming in a friendly against Finland. More importantly, they’ve occasionally struggled against vastly inferior teams, as evidenced by scoreless ties against Estonia (No. 99 in the world) and Albania (79) over the past two years, and Cape Verde Islands (114) as recently as last month.

2. Spain’s lack of a killer instinct may cost them dearly…

As callous as it may sound, I can’t believe the pre-tournament favorites didn’t take a lesson from their peninsular brethren and spend the second half pouring in goals against the powerless Hondurans. Even taking the missed penalty into account, Spain was well capable of making that match 5-0, but backed off for whatever reason. As I’ve written time and time again, goal differential is the first tiebreaker, and when you’ve just dropped your first game, you take every advantage you can get. It’s really incomprehensible that in a World Cup bereft of goals so far, a team would pass up a chance at a 4-0 margin. Right now, they’re only one goal ahead of Switzerland. A win against Chile will vault them past the South Americans on goal differential, but the Swiss will only need a two or three goal win against Honduras to take the group and banishing the Spanish to a Round of 16 matchup against Brazil, bringing their Cup to a quick end.

3. Africa looks doomed at the moment…

What was supposed to be a month-long celebration of a continent is turning into a nightmare for the six African teams and their fans. Cameroon, owners of Africa’s most prized result – a quarterfinal trip in 1990 – were the first to be bounced after losses to underwhelming Japan and Denmark. Ivory Coast is facing almost certain elimination at the moment in the face of a nine-goal deficit in their tiebreaker scenario with the Portuguese. The Algerians need not only a win against the United States, but also help in the second game, a daunting obstacle for a team yet to find the back of the net. The hosts are similarly buried, needing a monster win over France coupled with a big loss by either Uruguay or Mexico. Nigeria can advance through Group B, but will need a win against Korea couple with an Argentina win against Greece. Their best hope lies solely in the hands of Ghana, who face one of the most explosive teams of the tournament in Germany and will likely need some help from the Australians against Serbia if they can’t grab the full three points against the Germans, which seems unlikely at the moment. So right now, we’re most likely looking at an Africa-free Round of 16, a heartbreaking outcome if it comes to pass.

4. Tomorrow’s the day…

Starting Tuesday, the field of 16 will begin to take shape as the opening round comes to an end two groups at a time. Both matches in a given group are played at the same time to prevent any forms of collusion as much as possible. For example, all four teams in Group A will play their third match at 10:00 am EST on Tuesday and the same will happen for Group B at 2:30 EST. From here on out, the tournament takes on a do-or-die mentality that will likely open up play even more (goals have gone up by more than one per game from the first to second set of games).

5. Discipline is more important than ever this week…

Teams advancing to the next round will have to be extremely cautious in their final matches because any player picking up a second yellow card for the tournament in the last group match will have to miss the Round of 16 match. Players whose teams can’t afford for them to get cautioned for the second time, and therefore suspended, include Robin van Persie, Christinao Ronaldo, Phillip Lahm, Steven Gerrard, and any of the United States back line whose suspension could result in the appearance of Jonathan Bornstein. Once the knockout stage begins, yellow/red card totals are wiped clean and begin anew at zero under the same rules.