Five thoughts - Arrivederci, Italia! edition

1. Italy deserved what they got…

Italy was getting old in 2006 when they became champions. In 2008, they were on their last legs. And yet, in 2010, Marcello Lippi acted as if he’d found the fountain of youth, stubbornly sticking with the same squad that wasn’t getting any younger. Of the 11 players on the field today, five were born before 1980. Their failure to develop a suitable backup for 32-year-old Gianliugi Buffon will haunt them. Backup Federico Marchetti became the first Italy goalkeeper to give up three goals in a World Cup game since 1970, when the Italians coughed up four against a Brazil team widely considered to be one of the greatest teams ever.

The inability to restock a roster coming off World Cup glory has been a problem in recent years. After winning in 1998, France finished at the bottom of its group in 2002 while failing to score a single goal. Brazil’s letdown after its 2002 title wasn’t nearly as great, but the team’s quarterfinal loss marked its earliest exit since 1990. This year, however, takes the cake. For the first time in the tournament’s history, both the defending champion and runner-up failed to make it out of the group stage.

2. Party like it’s 2002…

Both Japan and South Korea were relative newcomers to the game when they were selected to host the Cup in 2002. Neither had ever cracked the knockout round previously. However, both were able to avoid South Africa’s misfortune; in fact, both teams won their respective groups. The Koreans in particular were a revelation, advancing all the way to the semifinals en route to a fourth-place finish at home. Neither team was able to repeat its luck in 2006, but they’ve both bounced back to grab spots in the Round of 16 once more. In total, it looks as though nine teams that survived the group stage in 2002 will be back for more in 2010. That list includes two more teams that weren’t around at this point in the 2006 Cup – Paraguay and the United States.

3. New Zealand proved they belong…

The fact that the All-Whites got to a point where simply scoring a goal in their final match would have won them the group that included the defending champions is nothing short of miraculous. Ultimately, they couldn’t eek out one last miracle and instead settled for their third draw (and point) of the tournament. That being said, it’s still impressive that a squad generously listed at 1500-1 odds to win the World Cup went three games without a loss and finished above Italy in the group standings. It will probably cost them their coach, though. Ricki Herbert, who makes only $50,000 (as opposed to Fabio Capellos $6,000,000+ salary), will surely be off to a much more lucrative club job that won’t allow him to coach the national team as well.

4. North Korea and Honduras might get it bad Friday…

The communist whipping boys of Group G are going to the wrong place if they’re looking for compassion in the wake of a 7-goal thrashing at the hands of Portugal. Ivory Coast will need to match that number, if not more, in order to advance over Ronaldo and co. on goal differential. It’s no guarantee that they’ll be nearly as effective, but they’ll certainly be doing everything in their power to score goals at the expense of the North Koreans.

Honduras is a similar story. Switzerland might need to pile it on in order to ensure advancement in a scenario that could see Spain, Switzerland, and Chile tied with Spain and Switzerland wins. That would leave three teams tied for two spots, and the Swiss have the easiest route to the top in facing the punchless Hondurans. It’s a cruel world, but goals are the currency of advancement at the World Cup.

5. We’ll see who wants it most when it counts…

Brazil and Portugal face off to determine the winner of Group G. It’ll be interesting to see if Portugal plays for the win that would give them the group title or is content to sit back and play for a tie that would guarantee the knockout stage. It would take a big loss to bring elimination into play, so they’re probably fine in that regard. If the two sides come out with guns blazing, it’ll be a great indicator of where the teams stand heading into the final phase of the tournament.

The other crucial match involves Spain and Chile. Spain should be a favorite to win, but Chile has played the best soccer of the group so far. A Chilean victory would likely do the unthinkable, knocking out the pre-tournament favorites in the early stages and adding Spain to the list of Euro heartbreak along with France and Italy.

Five thoughts - Gold medal in diving edition

1. The Kiwis have more fight than anyone could have expected…

New Zealand, a team I killed yesterday (and rightfully so) for being really bad at soccer, earned their second point of the tournament – this time against the world champs. While their goal came on an offsides that wasn’t called, the goal scored against them was equally unjust (more on this in a bit). Their ability to hold off the azzurri for the entirety of the second half will go down as one of the most heroic efforts in this World Cup, and without a doubt the most shocking result.

2. The Italians are an embarrassment to the sport…

Harsh, but there’s no other way to put it. The dives need to stop. Referees have been instructed time and time again to caution for simulation, and yet I’ve seen very few cases of that foul being called so far. Danielle De Rossi’s dive Sunday to win a penalty kick was shameful. On a less preachy note, it would probably help just from the standpoint of needing to establish a flow throughout the game. The constant stoppages have been a hindrance to their pace of play in the first two games.

3. Tomorrow is a big day for Chile…

The Chileans looked spectacular in their debut against Honduras, controlling the entire match and earning a 1-0 victory that looked extremely flattery to the Hondurans. However, it wasn’t long before the Swiss shock defeat of Spain put a big dent in Chile’s chances of advancement. Tomorrow is a must-win in terms of getting three points at the expense of Switzerland, and they might still need a positive result against Spain in order to survive.

4. South America continues to dominate…

Two South American teams played Sunday and both came away with wins that put them in prime position. Paraguay rebounded from its 1-1 draw against the Italians by beating Slovakia, 2-0. A win against the feisty All-Whites from New Zealand will vault them into the Round of 16 as the winners of Group F. Brazil easily dispatched the Ivory Coast to clinch a spot in the knockout stage. They’ll be without star Kaka in game three, however, after he was sent off for his second yellow card on the day.

5. While Europe continues to flounder…

I’ve already touched on the struggles of Germany, England and Spain, and the French are their own special story. Well, you can add the Italians to that list after today’s episode, and perhaps Portugal as well tomorrow if they don’t get a win against North Korea side that proved extremely tough against Brazil. That game has a shock 1-0 defeat for Ronaldo and co. written all over it if Portugal continues to be haunted by an anemic offense.

Five thoughts - Group F haters edition

1. Germany can breathe much easier now…

The Germans looked like they were in serious trouble after Friday’s loss because Ghana had a game in hand against a side many considered to be the worst in the tournament. Those views weren’t unwarranted considering Australia was humiliated in its first match and its best player was sent off, making him unavailable against the Black Stars. A Ghana win would vault them to the top with six points and leave Germany tied for second with three points but facing a tougher last-match opponent.

Unfortunately for the Africans, almost nothing went well for them today as they struggled to a 1-1 tie that put them on much shakier footing in the group stage. Instead of needing help, Germany can win the group with a win over Ghana and has the benefit of a +3 goal differential thanks to their thrashing of the Aussies that will almost assuredly win them any tiebreakers.

2. Group F is the definition of boring…

I can’t imagine anyone waking up early to watch this horror of a group. The Italians are essentially the same squad that hoisted the trophy in Germany, except four years older and that much worse for the wear. Plus, they spend so much time falling to the ground it looks like the match is being played with a sniper in the stands. Slovakia is actually the same team as Slovenia and Serbia but with different uniforms. They accomplished a real feat in their opener, drawing with a team whose sole goal is to not be the worst-ever World Cup team. Paraguay has actually accomplished less in its illustrious World Cup history than the United States (no, really). I guess that’s what you get when you run around dressed like cotton candy vendors. And lastly (how appropriate) is New Zealand, the aforementioned team whose expectations are so low the bar is actually below ground.

3. South America could see all five countries advance…

I won’t even bother discussing Brazil and Argentina for obvious reasons. Uruguay delivered a commanding performance against South Africa, leaving Bafana Bafana in tatters after a 3-0 romp. They’ll win Group A if they beat or tie Mexico in their group stage finale. Paraguay is currently in a four-way tie for first in Group F with 1 point, but has their toughest game out of the way and just needs to handle business against New Zealand to gain a leg up on the Slovakians. Chile might have suffered a heartbreaker with Spain’s loss to Switzerland. They dominated Honduras with a rarely seen 70% possession rate but couldn’t afford to see Spain gift three points to their competition in the fight to advance. It’s pretty easy to imagine the Swiss getting to six points against Honduras (although I said that about Ghana, and look what happened), meaning that it will come down to either Chile or Spain for the second spot. The Chileans can’t be too happy about that one.

4. Positioning is everything…

One of the reasons Spain can ill afford to finish second in Group H is because the group is paired with Group G, better known as the Group of Death. That means a second-place finish would match them up in the Round of 16 against the winners of G, most likely the Brazilians. Win that, and a matchup against the Netherlands awaits in the quarterfinals. That’s two top-five teams in the world before they would even reach the semifinals.

Meanwhile, whichever team wins group A will get the runner-up from Group B (and really, it could be any of Greece/South Korea/Nigeria), none of whom are overly impressive. That would be followed by a match against the Group C winner, which is no longer guaranteed to be England. Two different roads, one much easier than the other.

5. Brazil-Ivory Coast could be the game of the tournament so far...

The World Cup had a rarely uneventful first slate, but that’s changed with a lot of the games opening up more in the attacking third. In the past two days, we’ve seen a thrilling 3-2 win by the United States over Slovenia 2-2 draw between USA and Slovenia (Thanks, Mali!), followed up by an incredible back-and-forth match between Cameroon and Denmark, with the Danes actually managing to put their goals in the correct net this time.

The Brazil-Ivory Coast matchup is likely to continue this trend. Assuming Didier Drogba earns the start for this one, it will be a compelling battle and the Elephants could very well steal a win from the Brazilians. We still don’t know what form the South American champs are in after their shaky 2-1 win against North Korea last week. Even if it doesn’t live up to its much-anticipated billing, it will likely still appear stellar in comparison to the first two games of the day, both Group F matchups.