Power Rankings - Round of 16

THE CONTENDERS

1. Argentina – Unquestionably the class of the tournament thus far. Even more intriguing considering their coach leaves them susceptible to a world-class meltdown at any moment, but that’s not been the case in South Africa.

2. Brazil – It’s not the visually intoxicating style and flair that we’ve been accustomed to, but Dunga’s defensive-minded squad gets results.

3. Spain – A wretched start defined by missed chances, but the favorites rebounded to take back two wins in impressive fashion.

ALSO LURKING

4. Netherlands – The scoring isn’t there, but the results are. Major test will come with Brazil lurking in the quarterfinals, but can’t afford to look past Slovakia just yet.

5. Germany – Their road is not the easiest, but their solid play could provide the winning counter to England and Argentina’s inconsistencies. We’ll need to see more of the squad that routed Australia if they’re going to make another deep run.

6. Uruguay – One of two teams to not allow a goal in their first three games. They have a great path to the semifinals, and with a defense capable of stalling any offense until penalty kicks if necessary, anything can happen from there.

DARK HORSES

7. United States – With an ideal path to the semis, this could be uncharted territory for the Americans. Something about this squad seems special, though, and a top-four finish isn’t out of the question at this point.

8. Portugal – I’m not sold on them, despite that walloping they handed to North Korea. Too much of the awful soccer they played in the matches that sandwiched their win.

9. England – Didn’t look too good in their first three games, but managed to get a result that averted the apocalypse. Their matchup against the Germans could be an all-time classic if both sides play to their potential.

10. Mexico – Extremely unfortunate to draw Argentina in this round for the second straight World Cup. However, it took the goal of the tournament in 2006 to get rid of the Mexicans, and they could very well be up to the task Sunday.

11. Paraguay – Winners of the shoddiest group in the tourney, but they did what they had to do to advance. Hard to count out any of the South Americans after the way they dominated the group stage.

PACK YOUR BAGS

12. South Korea – Impressive play to finish off Nigeria, but I can’t see them beating an extremely strong South American side in Uruguay.

13. Chile – Might have played their way out of the tournament with a dreadful result against Spain. The loss relegated them to a faceoff against Brazil and a discipline meltdown means that they’ll be playing without three starters.

14. Japan – Keisuke Honda has been one of the better stories of the tournament, and Japan takes set pieces as well as anyone. Could end up in the quarterfinals, but that’s a best-case scenario.

15. Ghana – The Great African Hope will need an offensive spark to beat the United States. Two goals in three games, both coming from penalty kicks.

16. Slovakia – Their one contribution to the knockout stage will be the absence of those diving Italians. Thanks for playing, boys.

Five thoughts - Arrivederci, Italia! edition

1. Italy deserved what they got…

Italy was getting old in 2006 when they became champions. In 2008, they were on their last legs. And yet, in 2010, Marcello Lippi acted as if he’d found the fountain of youth, stubbornly sticking with the same squad that wasn’t getting any younger. Of the 11 players on the field today, five were born before 1980. Their failure to develop a suitable backup for 32-year-old Gianliugi Buffon will haunt them. Backup Federico Marchetti became the first Italy goalkeeper to give up three goals in a World Cup game since 1970, when the Italians coughed up four against a Brazil team widely considered to be one of the greatest teams ever.

The inability to restock a roster coming off World Cup glory has been a problem in recent years. After winning in 1998, France finished at the bottom of its group in 2002 while failing to score a single goal. Brazil’s letdown after its 2002 title wasn’t nearly as great, but the team’s quarterfinal loss marked its earliest exit since 1990. This year, however, takes the cake. For the first time in the tournament’s history, both the defending champion and runner-up failed to make it out of the group stage.

2. Party like it’s 2002…

Both Japan and South Korea were relative newcomers to the game when they were selected to host the Cup in 2002. Neither had ever cracked the knockout round previously. However, both were able to avoid South Africa’s misfortune; in fact, both teams won their respective groups. The Koreans in particular were a revelation, advancing all the way to the semifinals en route to a fourth-place finish at home. Neither team was able to repeat its luck in 2006, but they’ve both bounced back to grab spots in the Round of 16 once more. In total, it looks as though nine teams that survived the group stage in 2002 will be back for more in 2010. That list includes two more teams that weren’t around at this point in the 2006 Cup – Paraguay and the United States.

3. New Zealand proved they belong…

The fact that the All-Whites got to a point where simply scoring a goal in their final match would have won them the group that included the defending champions is nothing short of miraculous. Ultimately, they couldn’t eek out one last miracle and instead settled for their third draw (and point) of the tournament. That being said, it’s still impressive that a squad generously listed at 1500-1 odds to win the World Cup went three games without a loss and finished above Italy in the group standings. It will probably cost them their coach, though. Ricki Herbert, who makes only $50,000 (as opposed to Fabio Capellos $6,000,000+ salary), will surely be off to a much more lucrative club job that won’t allow him to coach the national team as well.

4. North Korea and Honduras might get it bad Friday…

The communist whipping boys of Group G are going to the wrong place if they’re looking for compassion in the wake of a 7-goal thrashing at the hands of Portugal. Ivory Coast will need to match that number, if not more, in order to advance over Ronaldo and co. on goal differential. It’s no guarantee that they’ll be nearly as effective, but they’ll certainly be doing everything in their power to score goals at the expense of the North Koreans.

Honduras is a similar story. Switzerland might need to pile it on in order to ensure advancement in a scenario that could see Spain, Switzerland, and Chile tied with Spain and Switzerland wins. That would leave three teams tied for two spots, and the Swiss have the easiest route to the top in facing the punchless Hondurans. It’s a cruel world, but goals are the currency of advancement at the World Cup.

5. We’ll see who wants it most when it counts…

Brazil and Portugal face off to determine the winner of Group G. It’ll be interesting to see if Portugal plays for the win that would give them the group title or is content to sit back and play for a tie that would guarantee the knockout stage. It would take a big loss to bring elimination into play, so they’re probably fine in that regard. If the two sides come out with guns blazing, it’ll be a great indicator of where the teams stand heading into the final phase of the tournament.

The other crucial match involves Spain and Chile. Spain should be a favorite to win, but Chile has played the best soccer of the group so far. A Chilean victory would likely do the unthinkable, knocking out the pre-tournament favorites in the early stages and adding Spain to the list of Euro heartbreak along with France and Italy.

Five thoughts - Yep, I'm really that stupid edition

1. My predictions are not to be trusted…

Portugal’s offense, which I derided yesterday while saying a North Korea win wouldn’t be a shock, was “anemic” to the tune of seven goals – six of which came in the second half. The offensive outburst featured more goals in the last 45 minutes than any other team has scored in their two games combined so far. In fairness, my criticism of the Portuguese wasn’t completely off base. Coming into the match, wonderboy Christiano Ronaldo had scored only one goal for his country in the past two years, coming in a friendly against Finland. More importantly, they’ve occasionally struggled against vastly inferior teams, as evidenced by scoreless ties against Estonia (No. 99 in the world) and Albania (79) over the past two years, and Cape Verde Islands (114) as recently as last month.

2. Spain’s lack of a killer instinct may cost them dearly…

As callous as it may sound, I can’t believe the pre-tournament favorites didn’t take a lesson from their peninsular brethren and spend the second half pouring in goals against the powerless Hondurans. Even taking the missed penalty into account, Spain was well capable of making that match 5-0, but backed off for whatever reason. As I’ve written time and time again, goal differential is the first tiebreaker, and when you’ve just dropped your first game, you take every advantage you can get. It’s really incomprehensible that in a World Cup bereft of goals so far, a team would pass up a chance at a 4-0 margin. Right now, they’re only one goal ahead of Switzerland. A win against Chile will vault them past the South Americans on goal differential, but the Swiss will only need a two or three goal win against Honduras to take the group and banishing the Spanish to a Round of 16 matchup against Brazil, bringing their Cup to a quick end.

3. Africa looks doomed at the moment…

What was supposed to be a month-long celebration of a continent is turning into a nightmare for the six African teams and their fans. Cameroon, owners of Africa’s most prized result – a quarterfinal trip in 1990 – were the first to be bounced after losses to underwhelming Japan and Denmark. Ivory Coast is facing almost certain elimination at the moment in the face of a nine-goal deficit in their tiebreaker scenario with the Portuguese. The Algerians need not only a win against the United States, but also help in the second game, a daunting obstacle for a team yet to find the back of the net. The hosts are similarly buried, needing a monster win over France coupled with a big loss by either Uruguay or Mexico. Nigeria can advance through Group B, but will need a win against Korea couple with an Argentina win against Greece. Their best hope lies solely in the hands of Ghana, who face one of the most explosive teams of the tournament in Germany and will likely need some help from the Australians against Serbia if they can’t grab the full three points against the Germans, which seems unlikely at the moment. So right now, we’re most likely looking at an Africa-free Round of 16, a heartbreaking outcome if it comes to pass.

4. Tomorrow’s the day…

Starting Tuesday, the field of 16 will begin to take shape as the opening round comes to an end two groups at a time. Both matches in a given group are played at the same time to prevent any forms of collusion as much as possible. For example, all four teams in Group A will play their third match at 10:00 am EST on Tuesday and the same will happen for Group B at 2:30 EST. From here on out, the tournament takes on a do-or-die mentality that will likely open up play even more (goals have gone up by more than one per game from the first to second set of games).

5. Discipline is more important than ever this week…

Teams advancing to the next round will have to be extremely cautious in their final matches because any player picking up a second yellow card for the tournament in the last group match will have to miss the Round of 16 match. Players whose teams can’t afford for them to get cautioned for the second time, and therefore suspended, include Robin van Persie, Christinao Ronaldo, Phillip Lahm, Steven Gerrard, and any of the United States back line whose suspension could result in the appearance of Jonathan Bornstein. Once the knockout stage begins, yellow/red card totals are wiped clean and begin anew at zero under the same rules.

Five thoughts - Gold medal in diving edition

1. The Kiwis have more fight than anyone could have expected…

New Zealand, a team I killed yesterday (and rightfully so) for being really bad at soccer, earned their second point of the tournament – this time against the world champs. While their goal came on an offsides that wasn’t called, the goal scored against them was equally unjust (more on this in a bit). Their ability to hold off the azzurri for the entirety of the second half will go down as one of the most heroic efforts in this World Cup, and without a doubt the most shocking result.

2. The Italians are an embarrassment to the sport…

Harsh, but there’s no other way to put it. The dives need to stop. Referees have been instructed time and time again to caution for simulation, and yet I’ve seen very few cases of that foul being called so far. Danielle De Rossi’s dive Sunday to win a penalty kick was shameful. On a less preachy note, it would probably help just from the standpoint of needing to establish a flow throughout the game. The constant stoppages have been a hindrance to their pace of play in the first two games.

3. Tomorrow is a big day for Chile…

The Chileans looked spectacular in their debut against Honduras, controlling the entire match and earning a 1-0 victory that looked extremely flattery to the Hondurans. However, it wasn’t long before the Swiss shock defeat of Spain put a big dent in Chile’s chances of advancement. Tomorrow is a must-win in terms of getting three points at the expense of Switzerland, and they might still need a positive result against Spain in order to survive.

4. South America continues to dominate…

Two South American teams played Sunday and both came away with wins that put them in prime position. Paraguay rebounded from its 1-1 draw against the Italians by beating Slovakia, 2-0. A win against the feisty All-Whites from New Zealand will vault them into the Round of 16 as the winners of Group F. Brazil easily dispatched the Ivory Coast to clinch a spot in the knockout stage. They’ll be without star Kaka in game three, however, after he was sent off for his second yellow card on the day.

5. While Europe continues to flounder…

I’ve already touched on the struggles of Germany, England and Spain, and the French are their own special story. Well, you can add the Italians to that list after today’s episode, and perhaps Portugal as well tomorrow if they don’t get a win against North Korea side that proved extremely tough against Brazil. That game has a shock 1-0 defeat for Ronaldo and co. written all over it if Portugal continues to be haunted by an anemic offense.

Five thoughts - Group F haters edition

1. Germany can breathe much easier now…

The Germans looked like they were in serious trouble after Friday’s loss because Ghana had a game in hand against a side many considered to be the worst in the tournament. Those views weren’t unwarranted considering Australia was humiliated in its first match and its best player was sent off, making him unavailable against the Black Stars. A Ghana win would vault them to the top with six points and leave Germany tied for second with three points but facing a tougher last-match opponent.

Unfortunately for the Africans, almost nothing went well for them today as they struggled to a 1-1 tie that put them on much shakier footing in the group stage. Instead of needing help, Germany can win the group with a win over Ghana and has the benefit of a +3 goal differential thanks to their thrashing of the Aussies that will almost assuredly win them any tiebreakers.

2. Group F is the definition of boring…

I can’t imagine anyone waking up early to watch this horror of a group. The Italians are essentially the same squad that hoisted the trophy in Germany, except four years older and that much worse for the wear. Plus, they spend so much time falling to the ground it looks like the match is being played with a sniper in the stands. Slovakia is actually the same team as Slovenia and Serbia but with different uniforms. They accomplished a real feat in their opener, drawing with a team whose sole goal is to not be the worst-ever World Cup team. Paraguay has actually accomplished less in its illustrious World Cup history than the United States (no, really). I guess that’s what you get when you run around dressed like cotton candy vendors. And lastly (how appropriate) is New Zealand, the aforementioned team whose expectations are so low the bar is actually below ground.

3. South America could see all five countries advance…

I won’t even bother discussing Brazil and Argentina for obvious reasons. Uruguay delivered a commanding performance against South Africa, leaving Bafana Bafana in tatters after a 3-0 romp. They’ll win Group A if they beat or tie Mexico in their group stage finale. Paraguay is currently in a four-way tie for first in Group F with 1 point, but has their toughest game out of the way and just needs to handle business against New Zealand to gain a leg up on the Slovakians. Chile might have suffered a heartbreaker with Spain’s loss to Switzerland. They dominated Honduras with a rarely seen 70% possession rate but couldn’t afford to see Spain gift three points to their competition in the fight to advance. It’s pretty easy to imagine the Swiss getting to six points against Honduras (although I said that about Ghana, and look what happened), meaning that it will come down to either Chile or Spain for the second spot. The Chileans can’t be too happy about that one.

4. Positioning is everything…

One of the reasons Spain can ill afford to finish second in Group H is because the group is paired with Group G, better known as the Group of Death. That means a second-place finish would match them up in the Round of 16 against the winners of G, most likely the Brazilians. Win that, and a matchup against the Netherlands awaits in the quarterfinals. That’s two top-five teams in the world before they would even reach the semifinals.

Meanwhile, whichever team wins group A will get the runner-up from Group B (and really, it could be any of Greece/South Korea/Nigeria), none of whom are overly impressive. That would be followed by a match against the Group C winner, which is no longer guaranteed to be England. Two different roads, one much easier than the other.

5. Brazil-Ivory Coast could be the game of the tournament so far...

The World Cup had a rarely uneventful first slate, but that’s changed with a lot of the games opening up more in the attacking third. In the past two days, we’ve seen a thrilling 3-2 win by the United States over Slovenia 2-2 draw between USA and Slovenia (Thanks, Mali!), followed up by an incredible back-and-forth match between Cameroon and Denmark, with the Danes actually managing to put their goals in the correct net this time.

The Brazil-Ivory Coast matchup is likely to continue this trend. Assuming Didier Drogba earns the start for this one, it will be a compelling battle and the Elephants could very well steal a win from the Brazilians. We still don’t know what form the South American champs are in after their shaky 2-1 win against North Korea last week. Even if it doesn’t live up to its much-anticipated billing, it will likely still appear stellar in comparison to the first two games of the day, both Group F matchups.

Communists, Coups, and the Beautiful Game

Honduras bears the weight of a country; North Korea likes flying horses.

For me, the World Cup is just as much about who doesn’t belong as who does. This is not to say that any of the teams are undeserving, but a few were certainly shock qualifiers and/or infrequent visitors of the game’s biggest stage. (If anyone wants to make an argument for an undeserving squad, my vote goes to our dear hosts, who not only gained automatic entry while perched atop the throne of mediocrity with a FIFA World Ranking of 83, but also introduced to the world Vuvuzelas, those horns from Hell which will be hereupon referred to as The Scourge of the Earth.)

Regardless, there are two teams who are playing in only their second World Cup final – Honduras and North Korea. Since one played Tuesday afternoon and the other’s first match is only hours away, I felt it appropriate to comment on two teams whose stays may be short but still manage to offer compelling stories.

Honduras is a country that has endeared itself greatly to me. They play in CONCACAF, the same governing branch of FIFA as the United States, so we see them twice in each World Cup qualification. Much like Southerners often find themselves cheering for rival SEC conference teams come postseason play, I root for our fellow CONCACAF-ians in their battles against Europeans, South Americans, and the like. So there’s that. While I’ve never been to the country myself, I’ve had both a sibling and good friend go on mission trips to Honduras within the past few years. I understand the plight of the country, which, by all accounts, seems to be populated by good, hard-working, yet extremely unlucky people.

Los Catrachos qualified for the World Cup in 1982, getting drawn into the same group as host Spain. It was a quiet Cup, with two draws and a loss that saw them finish last in their group, only one point away from advancing. Any hopes of a repeat performance were soon dashed, as 1986, 1990, 1994, and 1998 passed without any appearances. 1998 did bring, however, the arrival of Hurricane Mitch, one of the most intense and destructive hurricanes on record. 5,000 people died, $3 billion of property was destroyed, and its president claimed the country’s progress had been set back 50 years. 2002, 2006 – no World Cup.

2010 World Cup qualification was looking promising, with the exception of the fact that it was taking place in the middle of a coup d’etat after Congress overthrew the president. Honduras needed a United States win or tie against Costa Rica to grab the third and final guaranteed CONCACAF spot. Down 2-0, the United States rallied. The stoppage-time equalizer came in the 94^th minute, and from the unlikeliest of sources – Jonathan Bornstein, a defender who is almost unquestionably the worst player to put on a USA uniform in South Africa and whose only apparent qualification seems to be having picked a position where his peers are simply equally if not more incompetent than he. That aside, he can now drink in Honduras for free. Forever.

In a nice twist, Honduras has drawn Spain’s group again. Doing so has made them prohibitive underdogs to advance to the knockout stage. You have to think, though, that nothing can faze them at this point. Not even losing to injury one of their most dangerous players, Carlo Costly, whose father played on the 1982 squad. I’ll certainly be rooting for them to achieve what many believe to be an impossible task.

That a country like Honduras would endear itself to me is something I expected. What I wasn’t expecting, however, was to find myself respecting, and even pulling for North Korea. No such history lesson for that bunch is necessary. Here’s all you need to know: they’re communist, they have nuclear weapons, they censor the shit (ha!) out of everything, and their diminutive “Dear Leader” Kim Jong-il claims to have shot 38-under par in his first-ever round of golf, a good 20-25 strokes better than any other human to ever play the game.

They’re actually ranked worse than the Fighting Vuvuzelas, coming in at 105^th in the world. Naturally, I assumed they qualified only due to the fact that, well, they have nuclear weapons. The only other year they qualified was in 1966, a time so far gone that the English team then weren’t choking dogs but instead World Champions.

So when they were drawn into the Group of Death, I was pleasantly surprised. Brazil, Portugal, and the Ivory Coast – two of the three highest-ranked teams in the world, and all three considered soccer powers on some level. As the logic goes, with goal differential being the top tiebreaker, each would need to pummel the North Koreans in order to advance. I was so looking forward to seeing them repeatedly mauled by Brazilian superstars that I even tweeted about it.

Unfortunately, the first half came and went. No goals. Nothing. I began to notice the Koreans fighting, challenging, playing for the win. They were outclassed for sure, but you couldn’t have known it from watching them. It forced me to hearken back to the 2004 Olympics, when I brazenly supported the Iraqi team not because of their government, but because they weren’t their government. Kim Jong-il may lead North Korea, but he doesn’t play for North Korea. They don’t represent or reflect the views of their government any more than our players do us.

And so I found myself cheering when, down 2-0, they found the back of the net against one of the world’s best defenses in the game’s final minutes.

I’ll be doing the same for Honduras.

USA-Mexico recap

Bob Bradley just experienced the defining moment of his time as head coach of the United States soccer team.

Forget the historic victory over Spain and the near-miss against Brazil. The 5-0 loss at the hands of Mexico in the Gold Cup final will have much larger ramifications.

This was a throwaway tournament, a series of meaningless games with absolutely nothing at stake, and Bradley treated it as such, composing a roster almost entirely filled with backups who had essentially zero international experience. The benefits, it seemed, were twofold: give younger players much-needed playing time and rest key players before World Cup qualifying resumes in August.

Fortunately, the United States is lucky enough to be located in arguably the world’s weakest region of soccer. Opening up the tournament against weaklings such as Haiti and Grenada, the Americans handled their business and gained valuable experience in the process.

The gamble looked like it paid off when the plucky backups defeated a full-strength Honduras (one of their top rivals in World Cup qualification) twice – first in the group stage of the tournament and later in the semifinals.

Right now, the United States has one objective – qualify for the 2010 World Cup. Having made the leap from global laughingstock to legitimate threat, the US national team has qualified for the past five World Cups following a 40-year drought from 1950 to 1990. A spot in the tournament is no longer hoped for, it is expected.

Despite such recent stability, there is absolutely no margin for error. Because CONCACAF (the region of soccer teams including North America, Central America, and the Caribbean) is so weak, only three teams (compared to 13 from Europe) automatically qualify. The fourth place finisher advances to a playoff against a South America team.

With the final round of qualifying halfway completed, the United States is on the correct side of the dividing line (currently in place second out of six remaining teams), their perch is a precarious one indeed – only one game separates them from the third or fourth spot. And although it seems unlikely that the United States could sink to the dark depths of the fifth or six spots, it is entirely possible to slip to fourth place, and the requisite playoff against a likely superior South American team.

That possibility, it turns out, begins with Mexico.

Mexico, current occupant of the dreaded fourth spot, hosts the United States in the next qualifying match on August 12^th. Mexico has the history (The US national team is 0-23-1 all-time in the Mexican version of the Coliseum, Estadio Azteca), but the US is coming off an incredible Confederations Cup performance and seems to be playing their best soccer in recent memory. Conversely, the Mexicans are currently on their fourth manager in the past year and missing the World Cup seems entirely too real a possibility.

And so it was under these conditions that the two teams arrived in the Gold Cup final in New Jersey: Mexico licking their wounds and looking for any kind of spark, and the United States saving their starters in eager anticipation of a legitimate shot at their first-ever Estadio Azteca triumph.

The idea was simple – beating Mexico’s top players while using backups would be the straw on the camel’s back, the submission move that would ultimately cause Mexico to tap out of the World Cup. The risks seemed to be zero – only losing a meaningless tournament, but at the same time preventing Mexico from seeing (and preparing for) the United States’ best players.

There was, however, a hitch in those plans. Unaccounted for in that equation was a loss of epic proportion – which is exactly what the Americans were dealt.

The 5-0 score was exactly as it seemed. There were no deceiving qualities, no fluke goals. It was a bloodbath. An evisceration. And most importantly, it came on American soil, in New Jersey, with a crowd so pro-Mexico that the Americans never got so much as a single cheer in their own stadium.

Bad news first: the score reflects extremely well on the Mexico team, because a large majority of those players who shredded the United States will also be playing in the World Cup qualifying match.In a span of 90 minutes, the team with the least amount of goals in the final qualifying round found the back of the net five times, or only one time less than in their last five qualifying matches combined. The fact that they scored it against a bunch of scrubs is irrelevant; confidence, creativity, and well-placed aggression were all on display in a performance that restored the swagger to a team so desperately in need of it.

The good news, however, is that the score reflects nothing on the squad that will take the field for the United States on August 12^th, because none of those players were on the field for this massacre. They will be ready to go, and this might very well be a wakeup call they needed, a well-timed message about the dangers of lost focus.

Make no mistake about it: Bob Bradley will be judged by the outcome of one very important game in a couple of weeks, and deservedly so. If resting his stars and preventing Mexico from gaining any sort of familiarity with them pays off with a historic Azteca victory (or really, even a tie), the US will gain a huge boost and simultaneously deliver a crippling blow to their biggest rival.

However, if Mexico triumphs, the Americans will see their southern neighbors only one point behind in the standings with four games left. And if Mexico can piece together a win, don’t expect them to stop. The effects will last longer than just one game, and Mexico will likely put pressure on the United States to collect big results in road games at Trinidad and Honduras.

Although the outcome has yet to be determined, one thing is certain – Bradley will be remembered by the result.