Five thoughts - Yep, I'm really that stupid edition

1. My predictions are not to be trusted…

Portugal’s offense, which I derided yesterday while saying a North Korea win wouldn’t be a shock, was “anemic” to the tune of seven goals – six of which came in the second half. The offensive outburst featured more goals in the last 45 minutes than any other team has scored in their two games combined so far. In fairness, my criticism of the Portuguese wasn’t completely off base. Coming into the match, wonderboy Christiano Ronaldo had scored only one goal for his country in the past two years, coming in a friendly against Finland. More importantly, they’ve occasionally struggled against vastly inferior teams, as evidenced by scoreless ties against Estonia (No. 99 in the world) and Albania (79) over the past two years, and Cape Verde Islands (114) as recently as last month.

2. Spain’s lack of a killer instinct may cost them dearly…

As callous as it may sound, I can’t believe the pre-tournament favorites didn’t take a lesson from their peninsular brethren and spend the second half pouring in goals against the powerless Hondurans. Even taking the missed penalty into account, Spain was well capable of making that match 5-0, but backed off for whatever reason. As I’ve written time and time again, goal differential is the first tiebreaker, and when you’ve just dropped your first game, you take every advantage you can get. It’s really incomprehensible that in a World Cup bereft of goals so far, a team would pass up a chance at a 4-0 margin. Right now, they’re only one goal ahead of Switzerland. A win against Chile will vault them past the South Americans on goal differential, but the Swiss will only need a two or three goal win against Honduras to take the group and banishing the Spanish to a Round of 16 matchup against Brazil, bringing their Cup to a quick end.

3. Africa looks doomed at the moment…

What was supposed to be a month-long celebration of a continent is turning into a nightmare for the six African teams and their fans. Cameroon, owners of Africa’s most prized result – a quarterfinal trip in 1990 – were the first to be bounced after losses to underwhelming Japan and Denmark. Ivory Coast is facing almost certain elimination at the moment in the face of a nine-goal deficit in their tiebreaker scenario with the Portuguese. The Algerians need not only a win against the United States, but also help in the second game, a daunting obstacle for a team yet to find the back of the net. The hosts are similarly buried, needing a monster win over France coupled with a big loss by either Uruguay or Mexico. Nigeria can advance through Group B, but will need a win against Korea couple with an Argentina win against Greece. Their best hope lies solely in the hands of Ghana, who face one of the most explosive teams of the tournament in Germany and will likely need some help from the Australians against Serbia if they can’t grab the full three points against the Germans, which seems unlikely at the moment. So right now, we’re most likely looking at an Africa-free Round of 16, a heartbreaking outcome if it comes to pass.

4. Tomorrow’s the day…

Starting Tuesday, the field of 16 will begin to take shape as the opening round comes to an end two groups at a time. Both matches in a given group are played at the same time to prevent any forms of collusion as much as possible. For example, all four teams in Group A will play their third match at 10:00 am EST on Tuesday and the same will happen for Group B at 2:30 EST. From here on out, the tournament takes on a do-or-die mentality that will likely open up play even more (goals have gone up by more than one per game from the first to second set of games).

5. Discipline is more important than ever this week…

Teams advancing to the next round will have to be extremely cautious in their final matches because any player picking up a second yellow card for the tournament in the last group match will have to miss the Round of 16 match. Players whose teams can’t afford for them to get cautioned for the second time, and therefore suspended, include Robin van Persie, Christinao Ronaldo, Phillip Lahm, Steven Gerrard, and any of the United States back line whose suspension could result in the appearance of Jonathan Bornstein. Once the knockout stage begins, yellow/red card totals are wiped clean and begin anew at zero under the same rules.

Five thoughts - Gold medal in diving edition

1. The Kiwis have more fight than anyone could have expected…

New Zealand, a team I killed yesterday (and rightfully so) for being really bad at soccer, earned their second point of the tournament – this time against the world champs. While their goal came on an offsides that wasn’t called, the goal scored against them was equally unjust (more on this in a bit). Their ability to hold off the azzurri for the entirety of the second half will go down as one of the most heroic efforts in this World Cup, and without a doubt the most shocking result.

2. The Italians are an embarrassment to the sport…

Harsh, but there’s no other way to put it. The dives need to stop. Referees have been instructed time and time again to caution for simulation, and yet I’ve seen very few cases of that foul being called so far. Danielle De Rossi’s dive Sunday to win a penalty kick was shameful. On a less preachy note, it would probably help just from the standpoint of needing to establish a flow throughout the game. The constant stoppages have been a hindrance to their pace of play in the first two games.

3. Tomorrow is a big day for Chile…

The Chileans looked spectacular in their debut against Honduras, controlling the entire match and earning a 1-0 victory that looked extremely flattery to the Hondurans. However, it wasn’t long before the Swiss shock defeat of Spain put a big dent in Chile’s chances of advancement. Tomorrow is a must-win in terms of getting three points at the expense of Switzerland, and they might still need a positive result against Spain in order to survive.

4. South America continues to dominate…

Two South American teams played Sunday and both came away with wins that put them in prime position. Paraguay rebounded from its 1-1 draw against the Italians by beating Slovakia, 2-0. A win against the feisty All-Whites from New Zealand will vault them into the Round of 16 as the winners of Group F. Brazil easily dispatched the Ivory Coast to clinch a spot in the knockout stage. They’ll be without star Kaka in game three, however, after he was sent off for his second yellow card on the day.

5. While Europe continues to flounder…

I’ve already touched on the struggles of Germany, England and Spain, and the French are their own special story. Well, you can add the Italians to that list after today’s episode, and perhaps Portugal as well tomorrow if they don’t get a win against North Korea side that proved extremely tough against Brazil. That game has a shock 1-0 defeat for Ronaldo and co. written all over it if Portugal continues to be haunted by an anemic offense.

Five thoughts - Group F haters edition

1. Germany can breathe much easier now…

The Germans looked like they were in serious trouble after Friday’s loss because Ghana had a game in hand against a side many considered to be the worst in the tournament. Those views weren’t unwarranted considering Australia was humiliated in its first match and its best player was sent off, making him unavailable against the Black Stars. A Ghana win would vault them to the top with six points and leave Germany tied for second with three points but facing a tougher last-match opponent.

Unfortunately for the Africans, almost nothing went well for them today as they struggled to a 1-1 tie that put them on much shakier footing in the group stage. Instead of needing help, Germany can win the group with a win over Ghana and has the benefit of a +3 goal differential thanks to their thrashing of the Aussies that will almost assuredly win them any tiebreakers.

2. Group F is the definition of boring…

I can’t imagine anyone waking up early to watch this horror of a group. The Italians are essentially the same squad that hoisted the trophy in Germany, except four years older and that much worse for the wear. Plus, they spend so much time falling to the ground it looks like the match is being played with a sniper in the stands. Slovakia is actually the same team as Slovenia and Serbia but with different uniforms. They accomplished a real feat in their opener, drawing with a team whose sole goal is to not be the worst-ever World Cup team. Paraguay has actually accomplished less in its illustrious World Cup history than the United States (no, really). I guess that’s what you get when you run around dressed like cotton candy vendors. And lastly (how appropriate) is New Zealand, the aforementioned team whose expectations are so low the bar is actually below ground.

3. South America could see all five countries advance…

I won’t even bother discussing Brazil and Argentina for obvious reasons. Uruguay delivered a commanding performance against South Africa, leaving Bafana Bafana in tatters after a 3-0 romp. They’ll win Group A if they beat or tie Mexico in their group stage finale. Paraguay is currently in a four-way tie for first in Group F with 1 point, but has their toughest game out of the way and just needs to handle business against New Zealand to gain a leg up on the Slovakians. Chile might have suffered a heartbreaker with Spain’s loss to Switzerland. They dominated Honduras with a rarely seen 70% possession rate but couldn’t afford to see Spain gift three points to their competition in the fight to advance. It’s pretty easy to imagine the Swiss getting to six points against Honduras (although I said that about Ghana, and look what happened), meaning that it will come down to either Chile or Spain for the second spot. The Chileans can’t be too happy about that one.

4. Positioning is everything…

One of the reasons Spain can ill afford to finish second in Group H is because the group is paired with Group G, better known as the Group of Death. That means a second-place finish would match them up in the Round of 16 against the winners of G, most likely the Brazilians. Win that, and a matchup against the Netherlands awaits in the quarterfinals. That’s two top-five teams in the world before they would even reach the semifinals.

Meanwhile, whichever team wins group A will get the runner-up from Group B (and really, it could be any of Greece/South Korea/Nigeria), none of whom are overly impressive. That would be followed by a match against the Group C winner, which is no longer guaranteed to be England. Two different roads, one much easier than the other.

5. Brazil-Ivory Coast could be the game of the tournament so far...

The World Cup had a rarely uneventful first slate, but that’s changed with a lot of the games opening up more in the attacking third. In the past two days, we’ve seen a thrilling 3-2 win by the United States over Slovenia 2-2 draw between USA and Slovenia (Thanks, Mali!), followed up by an incredible back-and-forth match between Cameroon and Denmark, with the Danes actually managing to put their goals in the correct net this time.

The Brazil-Ivory Coast matchup is likely to continue this trend. Assuming Didier Drogba earns the start for this one, it will be a compelling battle and the Elephants could very well steal a win from the Brazilians. We still don’t know what form the South American champs are in after their shaky 2-1 win against North Korea last week. Even if it doesn’t live up to its much-anticipated billing, it will likely still appear stellar in comparison to the first two games of the day, both Group F matchups.

Five thoughts - "Kill the refs!" edition

Friday was a rough day for refs at the World Cup…

While the match officials have done a relatively good job so far in a World Cup largely bereft of controversial goals or expulsions, June 18^th won’t be forgotten anytime by fans of teams that have legitimate gripes in the area of officiating. Both Germany and USA (and even Serbia to a degree) were hampered by questionable decisions. The first match saw Alberto Mallenco dish out an astonishing nine yellow cards, including two in the first 35 minutes to Miroslav Klose, causing the Bayern Munich star to be sent off. One minute later, the Serbians found the back of the net to produce the shock 1-0 result.

Meanwhile, the Americans suffered a true World Cup travesty when an indefensible foul call resulted in the game-winning goal from substitute Maurice Edu being disallowed. Even worse was Koman Coulibaly’s utter refusal to explain his decision after the match. That the Malian ref was working his first-ever World Cup match was bad enough, but why would he even be put in that position when coming from a country so bereft of top-flight soccer matches? It only served to highlight the absurdity of the fact that not a single American referee was selected for the World Cup. Meanwhile, FIFA selected refs from Uzbekistan, Mali, Malaysia, and Seychelles. Good luck figuring that one out.

Two big countries are now in danger of not advancing…

Germany and England, two countries widely thought to be contenders to advance to at least the semifinals, if not further, are on the brink after two devastating results today. The Three Lions opened their account only four minutes into their Cup opener against USA, but have yet to repeat that feat in the subsequent 176 minutes of play. The seemed lost at times against a vastly inferior Algeria squad, but can be thankful they avoided a humiliating loss that a fluke goal concession would have provided. A win still advances them to the Round of 16, but they’ll need goals because a loss or tie against Slovenia couple with an American win will send them packing their bags to an outraged homeland.

The German predicament is only hypothetical at the moment, but becomes very real if Ghana grabs the full three points against the novice-looking Australians. The Socceroos look even more hapless now considering the team that beat them 4-0 in the opener failed to score in its next match. If Ghana gets to six points they’re almost sure to advance, leaving Germany to fight it out for the last spot with a Serbia squad which they gifted three points today.

Netherlands need to take it up a notch in game two…

The Dutch were considered one of the favorites heading into the tournament and take that mantle for themselves with a convincing win Saturday morning. They looked disjointed for large portions of their first match and only found their first goal when the Danes put it in their own net. The 2-0 scoreline was adequate, but nothing more. A win against Japan puts them in the driver’s seat in Group E, while a loss could relegate Oranje to second status in the group stage.

USA can’t keep playing from behind…

The ineptitude of the Yanks in the opening minutes of big games has become a joke, but it’ll be no laughing matter if it happens against Algeria. They’ve not made it 15 minutes without conceding a goal in this tourney, and a similar pattern exists from past matches. If they get down 1-0 to Algeria it might spell trouble, especially if England defeats Slovenia. Luckily, the Desert Foxes have yet to find the back of the net in either of their games.

Australia might get rocked in its final two games…

The Socceroos will be playing without star (and only capable player on the squad) Tim Cahill, whose dismissal in their opener leaves him suspended for the Ghana match. With Germany’s loss creating an opening in Group D, both Ghana and Serbia will be looking to take advantage by getting the full three against the Aussies. There will also be pressure to run up the score in order to match the Germans in goal differential. With the way Australia played in game one, it might not be too difficult a task.

Tru Warier

Ron Artest is a sociopath. This is something that is generally accepted and will not be debated.

Even if it were a debate, it would be a short one. Exhibit A: November 19, 2004 – better known as Malice in the Palace. I’ll not go back into the gory details of an event that effectively murdered my favorite basketball team, so let’s just say this: a fight broke out, and Ron Artest ended up in the stands, punching innocent people and raising hell.

I will never forget the look in his eyes. End of argument.

However, the fact that he holds the NBA record for longest non-drug-related suspension (86 games) and was convicted of assault for actions that took place on a basketball court have no bearing on his value as a basketball player. He’s always been crazy. He made it this far being crazy, and he’ll be crazy for the rest of his career.

Despite the fact that he’s fit for a straightjacket, he’s still managed an All-Star selection to go along with four years on the NBA’s All-Defensive team. He’ll never get the credit he deserves, though, mainly because he’s a sociopath who does things like confessing to drinking Hennessy during halftime of games earlier in his career. Lord only knows what secrets he chooses to keep to himself.

So when the Lakers, fresh off an NBA Championship in 2009, effectively swapped out Trevor Ariza for Ron Artest (although through free-agent signings, not a trade), it was met with the typical consternation and whining drivel typically reserved for Boston sportswriters, Keith Olbermann, or Fox News.

Why mess with something perfect in order to sign someone who once shaved Tru Warier into his head and asked his coach for an extended break from “work” because he was tired after promoting his album?

For game seven of the 2010 NBA Finals, that’s why.

No disrespect to Trevor Ariza. I’m sure he’s a nice, normal, well-adjusted member of society, but if you think the Lakers were winning that game (and, as a result, the series) with Trevor Ariza, you need to be locked up in whatever asylum houses Artest in the offseason.

Kobe Bryant shot 6-for-24. Artests 7-for-18 performance may not have been a masterpiece on any other night, but it looked like the Mona Lisa compared most of the stat lines in this atrocity of a game.

While Kobe was adding more bricks to the wall between he and Michael Jordan, Artest was making key shots, drawing key fouls, stealing passes, and basically finding all sorts of ways to kill the Celtics.

With the Lakers down 23-17 in the second quarter, he had this run of plays: offensive rebound, layup, defensive rebound, Gasol layup, steal, layup, offensive rebound, two-point shot, steal. Just like that, Los Angeles grabbed the lead. Later on, with the Celtics up three and fading fast in the fourth quarter, Artest converted a three-point play to tie the game for the first time since it was 29-29 – a score that came on an Artest three-pointer in the second quarter.

Of course, assuming he never kills anyone on the court, the play he’ll be remembered for came with exactly 1:00 left in the fourth quarter. Taking the ball after Rasheed Wallace drilled a three to cut the Lakers lead in half, Kobe found it in his heart to pass out of a double team to a wide open Artest, who promptly drilled a three-pointer that doubled the lead back to six – a margin that proved to difficult to overcome.

He lived for the moment, soaked it in. Blew kisses to the crowd.

Crazy? Yes.

Liability? Not when it mattered most.

Five thoughts - 6/17

A whole slew of thoughts on recent events in the World Cup... Hopefully this will develop into a daily feature.

1. A continent sees red…

Nigeria looked in complete control against Greece until a 33^rd minute red card was shown to midfielder Sani Kaita for one of the dumbest fouls you’ll ever see. The expulsion left the Super Eagles with only 10 men and shifted the momentum in favor of a country that had yet to score a goal in its entire World Cup history. Nigeria’s Vincent Enyeama was heroic between the pipes once again but couldn’t keep the ball out of the net as Greece won, 2-1.

The African hosts saw their Cup dreams shattered by a red card yesterday when goalie Itumeleng Khume was red-carded with South Africa already down 1-0 to Uruguay. The subsequent penalty kick made it 2-0 and left Bafana Bafana with almost no hope of advancing to the knockout stage.

Yet another African team had already seen a player sent off, as Algeria had been cut down to 10 men in its debut before conceding the game-winner to the Slovenians. While there’s no way of knowing exactly what caused each foul, it’s not unreasonable to suspect the pressure of playing on its home continent is wearing on the these teams.

2. Argentina looks much different than the squad that barely qualified…

After opening play with a 1-0 victory over an impressive Nigeria team and its seemingly invincible keeper, the Fighting Maradonas exploded for four goals against South Korea, essentially locking up their advancement. Lionel Messia remains goalless, but his fingerprints were all over the three goals scored by Gonzalo Higuain, who had open looks at the net in each instance.

It was a far cry from the side that needed wins in its last two games of World Cup qualifying to leapfrog in the standings an Ecuador team that faded late. They collected just eight wins in 18 matches and suffered the indignity of a 6-1 loss to Bolivia (perhaps the continent’s worst team) that had the world questioning how fit Maradona was to lead one of the world’s most talented rosters.

3. Scoring has opened up…

The first round of games were a soccer hater’s dream. Nine of the 16 matches were scoreless through the first half and 14 of the matches had two or fewer total goals. Blame was shifted from defensive tactics to the ball to the altitude, but whatever caused the draught in scoring seems to be gone for the time being. The first three games in the second go-round of group play has seen scores of 3-0, 4-1, and 2-1 – more 3 + goal games than the previous games combined.

4. Spain is in trouble…

La Furia Roja’s shock defeat at the hands of the Swiss is not a Cup-ender in terms of the immediate future, but it may leave Spain in a world of trouble down the road. If Spain advances out of the second spot in group H, they’ll potentially face Brazil in the Round of 16 and The Netherlands in the quarterfinals. Not exactly the lineup you’d prefer over the alternatives – a wounded Ivory Coast followed by an aging Italy.

5. USA cannot afford to lose…

Contrary to popular belief, the Slovenia game is not a must-win – just a can’t lose. A tie against Slovenia coupled with a win over (so-far) hapless Algeria and an England win over Slovenia would send the United States through to the Round of 16. A loss would be crippling at this point, however, because it would essentially guarantee Slovenia one of the two spots in the knockout stage, leaving England and USA to fight it out for the other spot.

Communists, Coups, and the Beautiful Game

Honduras bears the weight of a country; North Korea likes flying horses.

For me, the World Cup is just as much about who doesn’t belong as who does. This is not to say that any of the teams are undeserving, but a few were certainly shock qualifiers and/or infrequent visitors of the game’s biggest stage. (If anyone wants to make an argument for an undeserving squad, my vote goes to our dear hosts, who not only gained automatic entry while perched atop the throne of mediocrity with a FIFA World Ranking of 83, but also introduced to the world Vuvuzelas, those horns from Hell which will be hereupon referred to as The Scourge of the Earth.)

Regardless, there are two teams who are playing in only their second World Cup final – Honduras and North Korea. Since one played Tuesday afternoon and the other’s first match is only hours away, I felt it appropriate to comment on two teams whose stays may be short but still manage to offer compelling stories.

Honduras is a country that has endeared itself greatly to me. They play in CONCACAF, the same governing branch of FIFA as the United States, so we see them twice in each World Cup qualification. Much like Southerners often find themselves cheering for rival SEC conference teams come postseason play, I root for our fellow CONCACAF-ians in their battles against Europeans, South Americans, and the like. So there’s that. While I’ve never been to the country myself, I’ve had both a sibling and good friend go on mission trips to Honduras within the past few years. I understand the plight of the country, which, by all accounts, seems to be populated by good, hard-working, yet extremely unlucky people.

Los Catrachos qualified for the World Cup in 1982, getting drawn into the same group as host Spain. It was a quiet Cup, with two draws and a loss that saw them finish last in their group, only one point away from advancing. Any hopes of a repeat performance were soon dashed, as 1986, 1990, 1994, and 1998 passed without any appearances. 1998 did bring, however, the arrival of Hurricane Mitch, one of the most intense and destructive hurricanes on record. 5,000 people died, $3 billion of property was destroyed, and its president claimed the country’s progress had been set back 50 years. 2002, 2006 – no World Cup.

2010 World Cup qualification was looking promising, with the exception of the fact that it was taking place in the middle of a coup d’etat after Congress overthrew the president. Honduras needed a United States win or tie against Costa Rica to grab the third and final guaranteed CONCACAF spot. Down 2-0, the United States rallied. The stoppage-time equalizer came in the 94^th minute, and from the unlikeliest of sources – Jonathan Bornstein, a defender who is almost unquestionably the worst player to put on a USA uniform in South Africa and whose only apparent qualification seems to be having picked a position where his peers are simply equally if not more incompetent than he. That aside, he can now drink in Honduras for free. Forever.

In a nice twist, Honduras has drawn Spain’s group again. Doing so has made them prohibitive underdogs to advance to the knockout stage. You have to think, though, that nothing can faze them at this point. Not even losing to injury one of their most dangerous players, Carlo Costly, whose father played on the 1982 squad. I’ll certainly be rooting for them to achieve what many believe to be an impossible task.

That a country like Honduras would endear itself to me is something I expected. What I wasn’t expecting, however, was to find myself respecting, and even pulling for North Korea. No such history lesson for that bunch is necessary. Here’s all you need to know: they’re communist, they have nuclear weapons, they censor the shit (ha!) out of everything, and their diminutive “Dear Leader” Kim Jong-il claims to have shot 38-under par in his first-ever round of golf, a good 20-25 strokes better than any other human to ever play the game.

They’re actually ranked worse than the Fighting Vuvuzelas, coming in at 105^th in the world. Naturally, I assumed they qualified only due to the fact that, well, they have nuclear weapons. The only other year they qualified was in 1966, a time so far gone that the English team then weren’t choking dogs but instead World Champions.

So when they were drawn into the Group of Death, I was pleasantly surprised. Brazil, Portugal, and the Ivory Coast – two of the three highest-ranked teams in the world, and all three considered soccer powers on some level. As the logic goes, with goal differential being the top tiebreaker, each would need to pummel the North Koreans in order to advance. I was so looking forward to seeing them repeatedly mauled by Brazilian superstars that I even tweeted about it.

Unfortunately, the first half came and went. No goals. Nothing. I began to notice the Koreans fighting, challenging, playing for the win. They were outclassed for sure, but you couldn’t have known it from watching them. It forced me to hearken back to the 2004 Olympics, when I brazenly supported the Iraqi team not because of their government, but because they weren’t their government. Kim Jong-il may lead North Korea, but he doesn’t play for North Korea. They don’t represent or reflect the views of their government any more than our players do us.

And so I found myself cheering when, down 2-0, they found the back of the net against one of the world’s best defenses in the game’s final minutes.

I’ll be doing the same for Honduras.